boring prediction: the bay area will remain the center of gravity of tech for the next decade. this will be true in spite of an ongoing heroic effort by state and local politicians to kill it.

Oct 12, 2022 路 8:56 PM UTC

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the AI boom is enough on its own for this to be true, but it seems true for many other categories too. the most impressive technical people seem to be moving here again, and the quality of conversations remains higher than anywhere else i've found.
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another prediction: the next few $1T companies that get started will be "in-person first".
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Replying to @sama
Agree. While it may be true that living in SF isn't the same 'graduate degree' experience it once was for a few years, it's still an elite social club you're going to need to hang out at for a while.
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Replying to @sama
Definitely agreed. Was thinking the same about this a month ago.
Replying to @sama @michelletandler
Exogenous factors (8.0+ earthquakes, tsunami, the emergence of Godzilla, etc) deserve recognition
Replying to @sama
Parallel prediction : Innovation will spread in more & more geography with speed we are not anticipating. We're seeing this in India.
Replying to @sama
Sorry, LA is taking over.
Replying to @sama @aeyakovenko
If this is true, doesn鈥檛 it incentivize local governments to tax the living hell out of stubborn techies who refuse to cede ground for whatever reason?
Replying to @sama
a look at the state of SF/SV in 2012 would also suggest that a decade is a very long time. Both were rather different and had different momentums. A lot of things could happen, either way, that no one can predict.
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Replying to @sama
boring prediction: Canada with a merit based immigration policy and easier route to citizenship has been eating USAs lunch quietly for the last 3 years
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Replying to @sama
Ireland is calling 馃嚠馃嚜鈽橈笍 access to EU/UK markets
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Replying to @sama
SF will continue to be a hub, but the concept of one end all be all hub is dissipating
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