boring prediction: the bay area will remain the center of gravity of tech for the next decade. this will be true in spite of an ongoing heroic effort by state and local politicians to kill it.

Oct 12, 2022 · 8:56 PM UTC

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the AI boom is enough on its own for this to be true, but it seems true for many other categories too. the most impressive technical people seem to be moving here again, and the quality of conversations remains higher than anywhere else i've found.
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another prediction: the next few $1T companies that get started will be "in-person first".
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Replying to @sama
Nope. The next generation of the best and the brightest knows they don’t need to be there. Where old ideas are entrenched and tech mega corps try to remain relevant. Bay Area is ruled by the stagnant and old. It’s over. Innovation went truly online.
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Replying to @sama
*resists urge to say cope* cope
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Replying to @sama
People want to stay home. Out of touch. With due respect.
Replying to @sama
@TrackThisPred until January 2030
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Replying to @sama @jess
Miami thotbois in 3-2-1…
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Replying to @sama
Main issue will be housing. How are people going to afford 3M 2000 sqft house when RSUs are under water? Cities like Austin, Miami and Tampa are attractive because they still offer relatively affordable housing.
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Replying to @sama
Bay area is kind of one big tech campus.
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Replying to @sama
I think a lot of stuff will be moving to texas but the network effects of the bay area are overwhelming for many sectors of tech. Software and some other stuff can move around but hardware can't do that so easily.
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Replying to @sama
Centers of gravity are hard to shift. Too much of the backbone of tech is in the bay, not just the businesses, the people, the universities fostering the tech, but also a Je ne sais quoi that isn't easily replicated in places like Texas, NC, or GA.
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