i am still amazed how most startup investors are great at understanding that startups can grow exponentially but don’t understand that markets can too “the TAM is too small” has cost startup investors more money than any other often-repeated phrase i know of

Aug 19, 2022 · 3:57 AM UTC

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(“the founder is too inexperienced” is a close second and “what’s the barrier to entry?” is a close third)
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Replying to @sama
How about it’s counterpart ‘CAC’a too high’! Is that a lazy and silly excuse to pass on a deal as well?
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Replying to @sama
This comes down to: does your technology change the world? If so, then TAM in today’s world is not that useful and in returns in tomorrow’s changed world are nearly impossible to predict. But the one who changed the world doesn’t always reap the full reward (eg Netscape).
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Replying to @sama
I would actually prefer to be told I'm not lucky enough or connected enough. At least then I wouldn't feel compelled to doubt my plans or rewrite my pitch so many ways for each potential investor.
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Replying to @sama
But literally, markets growing exponentially happens via individual monopolistic companies decaying in unison, increasing scarcity and therefore increasing prices and demanding increased access to credit.
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Replying to @sama @dunkhippo33
Fair point but no single rule would mean you get into every venture deal. I’d take the Sequoia approach - great founder in a horrible market is tough. Mediocre founder in a great market can work. But it’s important to assess market not only on size but relative growth
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Replying to @sama
Investors with finance background, or otherwise exposed to financial industry professionals, tend to drift to a default model of conservatism that works out in practice to eliminating the possibility that exponential growth of a market can happen again.
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Replying to @sama
After managing and being in multiple discords/communities, I think the investors are justified at a point in saying “the TAM is too small” the risk increases exponentially
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Replying to @sama
investor could be too focused on the their own idea/ls of the startup e.g. "shazam for food" rather than the founder's "8 recipes for octopus". more likely, the latter being the real market
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Replying to @sama
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