i am still amazed how most startup investors are great at understanding that startups can grow exponentially but don’t understand that markets can too “the TAM is too small” has cost startup investors more money than any other often-repeated phrase i know of

Aug 19, 2022 · 3:57 AM UTC

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(“the founder is too inexperienced” is a close second and “what’s the barrier to entry?” is a close third)
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Replying to @sama
What is TAM?
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Replying to @sama
I'm not super amazed by this. TAM growth ~ how new technologies will fundamentally change a market, not trivial. Most startup investors are comfortable taking risks on things they understand or have good analogies for. Maybe analogies can help. "This is the iOS market of 2009"
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Replying to @sama
By definition a disrupters market must be small, because they aren’t just another brand after marketshare, they are changing the market itself.
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Replying to @sama
Seems like all great startups eventually expand the TAM. Trapped value.
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Replying to @sama
Ohh the number of investors told me "but who will pay for environmental/climate data/intelligence" And welcome to 2022. Customers are like "I'd buy that data yesterday rather than tomorrow" and I am like "building as fast as possible" if only I had right capitalization in 2019
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Replying to @sama @tobi
The question is why the hell do investors still fall for this belief?
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Replying to @sama
Very good point. Often a lazy excuse.
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Replying to @sama
Most disruptive startups create new markets and categories almost out of thin air. Great investors have the foresight to see that.
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Replying to @sama
There’s a crazy stat out there about salesforce’s articulated TAM when they first went public (~$10b), compared to their $200b market cap today…
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Replying to @sama
Come on dear Sam @sama #SamAltman #OPENAI @OpenAI , pls tell us do you already have AGI or not ?
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