What are we currently missing but is going to seem obvious in retrospect about the implications/significance of negative interest rates?

Jan 10, 2020 · 1:50 AM UTC

213
101
62
907
Replying to @sama
I think it depends on the impact to the stock market which we probably won't know until we get there. If the bull run / expansion continued under negative interest conditions then inequality would likely grow due to cheap money that could be reinvested for disproportionate gains.
Replying to @sama
Innovation is like magic.. once you see it for the first time it’s crazy to realize how no one did it before and then it becomes common place the magic fades and it’s just “a human right”.
Replying to @sama
Great question. The most obvious will be to the refusal to acknowledge the fragility of fractional banking and private money creation vs full reserve banking. And how that distorts the functioning, perception and effectiveness of less arbitrary negative interest rate approaches.
Replying to @sama
That it was always insane to discount the future compared to today (Or at least discounting only made sense when people didn’t live that long and everything rotted quickly)
Replying to @sama
CAPM won't work. Oh, wait, it never actually did.
Replying to @sama
That we don't need them. Set at zero.
Replying to @sama
crisis of confidence in fiat currency + activist fed, eventual tidal wave of inflation
Replying to @sama
They generally cause capital flight from low/negative interest areas for those seeing higher returns. This creates somewhat artificial price appreciation of those assets which will have to correct when interest rates return to normal historical levels
Replying to @sama
Negative interest rates are essentially charging depositors to hold money in your bank and are used as a way to stop capital inflows and your currency appreciating too much. Switzerland has used them several times from the 1970s until now. You can read all about their results.
Replying to @sama
Howard Marks wrote a memo about this sometime ago: oaktreecapital.com/insights/…