The data team at @TheEconomist outdid itself: cover story of its Covid 19 excess death model, lead article, longer briefing, tech background at economist.com/graphic-detail…, additional page with per-country fits and a @Github repo with code and data. Bravo!

How we estimated the true death toll of the pandemic

Dealing with potential outcomes, known unknowns, and uncertainty

economist.com

May 18, 2021 · 2:32 AM UTC

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Replying to @eddelbuettel @TheEconomist @github
Reproducible journalism!
Replying to @eddelbuettel @TheEconomist @github
"This work gives a 95% probability that the death toll to date is between 7.1m and 12.7m, with a central estimate of 10.2m." Unfortunately not exactly true as many other articles. A 95% confidence level does not mean...
Replying to @eddelbuettel @TheEconomist @github
...that for a given realized interval there is a 95% probability that the population parameter lies within the interval en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conf…

Confidence interval - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org