Engineer on @googlechrome. Involved in CSS and W3C standards. Previously @mozilla, @w3ctag. Mastodon: @dbaron@w3c.social
Rockville, Maryland, USA
Joined March 2008
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Seems like this is the point in the evening where our East Coast friends should go to bed... and we'll call to wake you up if there's white smoke coming out of the chimney of the Supreme Court Building?
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L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
“turned down a federal judge’s order” = breaking the law with both pinkies up
USPS turned down a federal judge’s order this afternoon to sweep mail processing facilities serving 15 states after the agency disclosed that more than 300,000 ballots nationwide could not be traced.
washingtonpost.com/business/…
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OK, here's a map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (3,151,257) in Los Angeles County, California.
Source for ballots: tableau.the-pdi.com/t/Campai…
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Update: Map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (12,370,175) in California.
Source for ballots has moved to tableau.the-pdi.com/t/Campai…
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So big shifts are possible. The range of scenarios in @FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast at projects.fivethirtyeight.com… is not unusual
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And going back further to 2002, the Republicans picked up three seats (Minnesota, Missouri, and Georgia), and the Democrats picked up one seat (Arkansas).
(The Republicans would lose that Minnesota seat in 2008, and the Democrats would lose the Arkansas seat in 2014.)
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Going back to 2008, the Democrats picked up seats in Alaska, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia, and North Carolina.
(Note that the Alaska, Colorado, and North Carolina seats were lost in 2014.)
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In this class in particular, the 2014 elections involved Republican pickups in Alaska, Montana, Colorado, South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, and North Carolina.
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This way of thinking helps explain some people's confusion in 2018 when, in a Democratic year, the Senate shifted a few seats towards the Republicans.
2018 was a huge Democratic win in the senate (23D/10R), but it was replacing the 2012 class which was 25D/8R.
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This isn't unusual for Senate classes in recent years; see the maps I made at dbaron.org/senate-classes/ .
(These are what I look at when I want to think about Senate elections.)
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This year's US Senate elections are for Class II (other than the special elections in Arizona and Georgia). This class was last elected in 2014 (electing 22 Republicans and 11 Democrats), and before that in 2008 (20D, 13R) and 2002 (21R, 12D). Those are pretty big swings.
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A thread on how I think about US Senate elections, since I think it's useful. Many people tend to focus on the Senate as a whole and how it shifts in a given election. However, I think the results are much more understandable when looking at the three Senate classes separately.
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It seems like the most likely electoral college tie scenario, given that I've seen it twice in the past few days in the 100-dots graph on @FiveThirtyEight is this map (created with @270toWin) 270towin.com/maps/d7ZeX #2020election
L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
If the recently seated Justice Barrett sides with the Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Thomas Quartet, America could be in for a battle that makes Bush v. Gore look tame. I’ve joined with @stevenmazie of @TheEconomist in @GlobeOpinion to sound the alarm🚨 bostonglobe.com/2020/11/01/o…
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Not that unusual for November, especially in the western Caribbean, which often seems like the focus for late-season storms in the Atlantic.
See, e.g., Otto (2016, category 2), Ida (2009, category 2), Paloma (2008, category 4), Michelle (2001, category 4).
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The ETAs for Tropical Storm Eta.
Tropical Storm #Eta is now forecast to become a strong category two hurricane near landfall along the coast of Nicaragua. Tropical Storm conditions are forecast to arrive around 2pm EST tomorrow and storm preparations should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
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L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
Super Typhoon #Goni is now making landfall on is the island of Catanduanes Island with a pressure of 884mb and wind speeds of 195mph. This would be the strongest landfalling storm of all time in the Northern Hemisphere and tied for the entire globe with Winston (2016).
#RollyPh
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