The @FiveThirtyEight forecast was not bad:
p(T)>.5: 25T
.5<p(C)<.6: 1C 2T
.6<p(C)<.7: 1C
.7<p(C)<.8: 1C 2T
.8<p(C)<.9: 4C 1T
p(C)>.9: 14C
2
1
2
Note that above assumed NH and MN to Clinton and AZ and MI to Trump. NH now switched to few hundred votes on the Trump side.
Nov 9, 2016 · 9:48 AM UTC