nitter
getify #LookingForWork
@getifyX
24 Oct 2016
speaking purely as a layman, i'm incredulous hearing that clinton is ahead in polls by just 5% but predicted 100+ electoral vote win.
3
6
L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social
@davidbaron
24 Oct 2016
Replying to
@getifyX
@getify
If states were uniform, ahead by 5% would mean 538-0 win. So it's a function of how nonuniform the states are.
Oct 24, 2016 · 9:43 PM UTC
2
L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social
@davidbaron
24 Oct 2016
Replying to
@davidbaron
@getify
Being 5% ahead is enough to swing R-leaning FL, NV, NC, and maybe OH, which is way more than 50 electoral votes moving R→D.
getify #LookingForWork
@getifyX
24 Oct 2016
Replying to
@davidbaron
and that's what seems bonkers to me. 5% ahead shouldn't be considered a unanimous mandate.
1
L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social
@davidbaron
24 Oct 2016
5% is a decent but not huge mandate. 10% is biggest since 1984. Presidents (e.g., Bush 44) used smaller mandates for huge change.