Depends on the voting system used to count the ranked choice votes, I think.
With STV it's fine to cast a protest vote for a third party that has no chance.
But once it's not clear who the final two are, strategic voting is important again.
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For example, I think it's likely that if 1.6% of the Alaska at-large voters had voted Begich-Palin rather than Palin-Begich, that Begich would be Representative-elect rather than Peltola.
(I don't know if there's public data to confirm this, though there would in San Francisco.)
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The difference in 1st choice for Palin vs Begich was 3.1%, so shifting 1.6% of the voters would cause the needed 3.2% swing and (making some assumptions about write ins, since they didn't see a chart with write in transfers separate) make the final round Begich vs. Peltola.
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The data are now out, and my assumption was correct. Begich would have won in the final round against Peltola. nitter.vloup.ch/AaronBlake/statu…
Sep 11, 2022 · 2:00 PM UTC
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