A month from now, when we have all the final vote numbers... I wonder what the tipping point state in this election will have been, and whether it agrees with what the pundits and forecasters thought it would be. My list of past tipping point states: dbaron.org/presidential-elec…
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At the moment it would appear it's going to be Wisconsin no?
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I think it's *way* too early to tell.
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Charles Franklin @PollsAndVotes
13 Nov 2020
Tipping point Wisconsin, again. And, Dem minus Rep margin last 6 presidential elections: 2000: +0.22 2004: +0.38 2008: +13.91 2012: +6.94 2016: -0.77 2020: +0.62 (unofficial)
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Yeah, I concluded yesterday that's what it was looking like.
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Er, wait, isn't it the boundary between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania? That is, wouldn't a uniform shift of margin between 0.63% and 1.16% (or half that in votes) have given a 269-269 tie, after flipping GA, AZ, and WI?
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So WI is the tipping point state for Biden but PA would have been for Trump (ignoring the contingent election procedure in the 12th Amendment)?
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Replying to @khuey_
I prefer to think about the tipping point symmetrically. One other interesting tidbit: looks like the only "state" that moved from one side of the tipping point to the other (not counting the 1/10 of Wisconsin) was the Nebraska 2nd district.

Dec 3, 2020 · 12:44 AM UTC