I guess I should have been paying a little bit more attention to the vertically integrated smoke forecast and not just the near-surface smoke forecast.
rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… says the Bay Area is going to be stuck with dark orange skies for at least another 40 hours...
Sep 9, 2020 · 7:48 PM UTC
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Worth repeating the link to sources (and to future runs):
In general, these HRRR smoke images can be found at:
rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… for the southwest US or rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… for the whole country. The 48 hour long runs are done only every 6 hours; other runs just extend 24 hours.
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And now the 18:00 UTC (11:00 PDT) run is mostly done.
Near-surface smoke rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… shows Bay Area getting worse tomorrow morning (smoke from Dolan Fire, Monterey County) before getting better.
Vertically integrated smoke still bad rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
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Now the 00:00 UTC (17:00 PDT) run is done.
Vertically integrated smoke forecasts a bit of relief from dark skies by Friday. Maybe 50% less smoke? Still bad. rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
Near-surface smoke shows things getting a bit better Thursday evening. rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
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Today's 18:00 UTC (11:00 PDT) run shows some reasons for optimism.
The vertically integrated smoke forecast shows the western edge of the think smoke band moving east, and clearing over the bay area from west to east over Monday morning. rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
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It's not clear that the near-surface smoke forecast has been that reliable lately, but it seems to show the possibility of more clearing at the surface a bit after that, assuming its trend continues rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
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