This is interesting (though preliminary). Density is predictive but not *that* predictive of COVID-19 deaths. Socioeconomic status seems to matter more, with areas with more minorities and fewer college graduates suffering a lot more deaths per capita.
Jed Kolko @JedKolko
5 Apr 2020
Replying to @JedKolko
Looking at per-capita rates, rather than the level, means a lower r^2. But there's still plenty of factors that help explain local covid19 differences: like density, demographics, and climate. (table below from this thread: nitter.vloup.ch/JedKolko/status/…)
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214
39
545
Also, temperature seems to matter quite a bit, with warmer places having fewer problems, controlling for other factors. Places with more rainfall seem to have more problems, though; not sure if that's a proxy for humidity or what.
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49
17
256
Climate might affect virus directly (UV radiation), or indirectly (do people congregate inside more when it's cold & wet out). It's a soup of hard-to-interpret proxies.
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33
This is interesting stuff. Might be worth looking at humidity. Might also be worth looking at actual weather for this March instead of long-term averages.
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Replying to @NateSilver538 @JedKolko
Other temperature and humidity effects could be from how they affect how long the virus survives on surfaces. I'm aware of ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/article… on this effect for other coronaviruses; not sure about research on this for SARS-CoV-2.

Apr 5, 2020 · 4:37 PM UTC
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