This is interesting. I didn't know this. It suggests Hubei's success, such as it is, didn't come from the lockdown, but from centralized quarantining of anybody who was even slightly sick.
(1/x) Large swaths of USA now adopting extensive lockdown orders paralleling those in Wuhan.
But Wuhan's response had another crucial element: central quarantine.
Read this for a crazy, only-in-New York idea for how to break the epidemic. Perhaps useful for others too.
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That was certainly what nitter.vloup.ch/XihongLin/status… suggests.
Yes. The quarantine-at-home strategy used between 1/23-2/1 in Wuhan ie, some confirmed cases were isolated at home, helped reduce R from 3.8 to 1.25, but not good enough. An important lesson for us to learn. Centralized quarantine of confirmed cases after 2/1 was effective(R=0.3)
Mar 21, 2020 · 3:56 AM UTC
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