Questions I'm wondering about tonight, about COVID-19: 1. If we give up on containment, what happens? Does it go around the world and go away, or does it become endemic? 2. If it becomes endemic, how does this change human life expectancy (in developed & developing countries)?
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You can’t give up on containment. Social distancing is also containment. recommend reading “great influenza 1918” book, relevant.
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Replying to @atotic
But I think nitter.vloup.ch/XihongLin/status… makes it clear that it's not enough for containment
Xihong Lin @XihongLin
7 Mar 2020
Yes. The quarantine-at-home strategy used between 1/23-2/1 in Wuhan ie, some confirmed cases were isolated at home, helped reduce R from 3.8 to 1.25, but not good enough. An important lesson for us to learn. Centralized quarantine of confirmed cases after 2/1 was effective(R=0.3)

Mar 15, 2020 · 7:45 AM UTC

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Replying to @davidbaron
According to the book, porous containment only slows it down by a few weeks.