I highly doubt the death rate is to be believed at 2% if you look at the videos and crematorium testimonials coming out of the region.
Lots of young healthy-looking people dying, and China isnt counting the people who die at home (which apparently accounts for 62% of the deaths)
ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneu… is showing a 2.53% death rate in Hubei (湖北) province, 1318 of 51986. (Likely both numbers are undercounts, though, but I'd be skeptical it could be 20%.)
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Ah...I'd expect the cured number to lag behind time-wise by enough that I'd be pretty skeptical of that ratio. (Say, maybe the deaths number lags the curve of confirmed cases by a week or so (maybe less), but the cured curve probably lags by more like 3 weeks.)
Feb 14, 2020 · 4:24 AM UTC
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