Republicans are gaining in our Senate forecast. Democrats are gaining in our House forecast. Here's a little bit more about what's behind that—and why it isn't that surprising to see the two chambers diverge. 53eig.ht/2CgPlfi
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In some ways, House and Senate battlegrounds are opposites. For instance, House battlegrounds are quite a bit *more* suburban than the country overall, while Senate battlegrounds are quite a bit *less* so. House battlegrounds have high education levels; Senate has low ones.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Is the Urban/Suburban/Exurban/Rural weighted by population? If not, then, for example, a state with 4 congressional districts of 700K people, 3 with 700 mi² (density 1000/mi², suburban), and 1 with 14,000 mi² (density 50/mi², rural) would count as density 174/mi² (exurban).

Oct 17, 2018 · 2:37 AM UTC