Engineer on @googlechrome. Involved in CSS and W3C standards. Previously @mozilla, @w3ctag. Mastodon: @dbaron@w3c.social
Rockville, Maryland, USA
Joined March 2008
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Just imagine if we had an election that came down to the Philadelphia suburbs in Pennsylvania, the D.C. suburbs in Maryland, the Houston suburbs, Dayton Ohio, and Montgomery Alabama. Then the rest of the world would have to keep track of which Montgomery County is which.
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This page has been really useful the past few days for tracking which news organizations have called which states.
It does require reloading in the browser, though, since it doesn't auto-update.
We're tracking race calls from news orgs here nytimes.com/interactive/2020…
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If you want a nice beach, though, I'm told you go to Delaware or Maryland.
(I never went to beaches from home growing up, though, so I don't really know first hand.)
And, yes, states are smaller. Serving across Delaware or New Jersey to get elsewhere was normal.
I just rechecked 2008 with the data from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_U… and got that it was an Iowa/Colorado tie.
@geoffreyvs btw, when I worked out tipping point states (dbaron.org/presidential-elec…) I got Iowa for 2008 and Colorado for 2012.
(This is in reply to fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo… .)
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Compare to 2000 (the one time I was a Chester County voter in a presidential election)... when Bush beat Gore by 9.6% in Chester County.
A month from now, when we have all the final vote numbers... I wonder what the tipping point state in this election will have been, and whether it agrees with what the pundits and forecasters thought it would be.
My list of past tipping point states: dbaron.org/presidential-elec…
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This is a plausible path to a @JoeBiden victory without either Pennsylvania or Georgia (both of which he still seems to have a decent chance at). Map via @270toWin 270towin.com/maps/1pyb7 #2020election
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Seems like this is the point in the evening where our East Coast friends should go to bed... and we'll call to wake you up if there's white smoke coming out of the chimney of the Supreme Court Building?
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OK, here's a map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (3,151,257) in Los Angeles County, California.
Source for ballots: tableau.the-pdi.com/t/Campai…
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Update: Map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (12,370,175) in California.
Source for ballots has moved to tableau.the-pdi.com/t/Campai…
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So big shifts are possible. The range of scenarios in @FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast at projects.fivethirtyeight.com… is not unusual
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And going back further to 2002, the Republicans picked up three seats (Minnesota, Missouri, and Georgia), and the Democrats picked up one seat (Arkansas).
(The Republicans would lose that Minnesota seat in 2008, and the Democrats would lose the Arkansas seat in 2014.)
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Going back to 2008, the Democrats picked up seats in Alaska, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia, and North Carolina.
(Note that the Alaska, Colorado, and North Carolina seats were lost in 2014.)
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This way of thinking helps explain some people's confusion in 2018 when, in a Democratic year, the Senate shifted a few seats towards the Republicans.
2018 was a huge Democratic win in the senate (23D/10R), but it was replacing the 2012 class which was 25D/8R.
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This isn't unusual for Senate classes in recent years; see the maps I made at dbaron.org/senate-classes/ .
(These are what I look at when I want to think about Senate elections.)
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