Engineer on @googlechrome. Involved in CSS and W3C standards. Previously @mozilla, @w3ctag. Mastodon: @dbaron@w3c.social
Rockville, Maryland, USA
Joined March 2008
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Hmmm.
For my 2003 Impreza: mostly true, modulo having to have the valve cover and tube seals replaced somewhat regularly. (March 2015, August 2018) Is that a quirk of the boxer (horizontally opposed) engine?
But the original tweet seems pretty true in my case as well.
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See nitter.vloup.ch/davidbaron/statu… . There are 48-hour runs every 6 hours, and 24-hour runs every hour.
In general, these HRRR smoke images can be found at:
rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… for the southwest US or rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… for the whole country. The 48 hour long runs are done only every 6 hours; other runs just extend 24 hours.
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Now the 00:00 UTC (17:00 PDT) run is done.
Vertically integrated smoke forecasts a bit of relief from dark skies by Friday. Maybe 50% less smoke? Still bad. rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
Near-surface smoke shows things getting a bit better Thursday evening. rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
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That said, I wouldn't expect models to do particularly well in edge cases that they weren't well tested on. But I still think they're likely better than nothing. (Where the standard "nothing" baseline is the best linear combination of climatology and persistence.)
And now the 18:00 UTC (11:00 PDT) run is mostly done.
Near-surface smoke rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… shows Bay Area getting worse tomorrow morning (smoke from Dolan Fire, Monterey County) before getting better.
Vertically integrated smoke still bad rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
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Based particularly on nitter.vloup.ch/NWSBayArea/statu… I think what they were saying is that forecasts for things like temperature were not accounting for smoke... not that the smoke model itself (which is separate from other models) is broken.
The models do not seem to be keeping up with the thick layer of smoke as far as temperature forecast data, visibility, etc. We just have so much smoke over us right now. Yesterday the models were way off and we expect the same today (for afternoon temperatures).
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Worth repeating the link to sources (and to future runs):
In general, these HRRR smoke images can be found at:
rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… for the southwest US or rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… for the whole country. The 48 hour long runs are done only every 6 hours; other runs just extend 24 hours.
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I guess I should have been paying a little bit more attention to the vertically integrated smoke forecast and not just the near-surface smoke forecast.
rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… says the Bay Area is going to be stuck with dark orange skies for at least another 40 hours...
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With a real camera, you can often/usually turn off the auto white-balance and set it to "sunlight" based white balance, which ought to help.
(That said, I took a few photos that way this morning but haven't gotten them off the camera yet...)
As usual, up-to-date runs for the southwest US available at rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H… , and the 48-hour-long runs are every 6 hours.
The 12:00 UTC (05:00 PDT) HRRR Smoke suggests that by Wednesday evening, the winds will shift so that the Bay Area gets smoke from fires in Monterey County instead of from fires in Tehama and Glenn counties. Not the wind shift that I was hoping for. rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
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I think I understated the improvement that it's showing tomorrow, actually -- probably more like substantial improvement rather than slight, but still a good bit of smoke.
The 18:00 UTC (11:00 PDT) HRRR smoke model shows a smoky 48 hours for the Bay Area, although perhaps slight improvement may be coming. The bulk of the smoke looks like it's coming from the fires in Tehama and Glenn counties and other places to our north. rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H…
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When I moved from Pennsylvania to California at 22, I naively thought that the "where were you previously registered to vote?" question on the California voter registration form would lead to me being unregistered in PA. It didn't.
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Good font and color choices, layout a bit too clever especially for those who don't already know the candidate's name.
Still not voting for him.
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Framboise is not a useless word! There's a chain of ice cream shops in Paris (Amorino) that has really good raspberry sorbet, especially when mixed with the chocolate sorbet.
On the other hand, it seems unlikely I'll be in Paris anytime soon.
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Also worth noting: an ecosystem based on advertising is good for equity between users of the same site (but not between sites in different markets), since ad impressions to poor people are worth less money than those to rich people, and sites are ok with that.