Some of the new super-expensive SFHs don't even look like McMansions. Have a look at 905waverley.com/ and 909waverley.com/ which are 5BR/5.5bath houses with an additional studio (+1bath) in-law unit on top of the garage.
If you've walked around that neighborhood (which I have), you'd know that many older houses there get torn down and redeveloped into something bigger. $3.8M is the teardown value of that parcel; it would probably be the same if there were a shack on it.
I don't think it's primarily statistical -- I think it's tied to the ideas that:
* presidents normally lead big changes at the start of their presidency
* presidents with less experience at big-time politics have stumbled at the start and not gotten what they want (e.g. Clinton)
My top reason to be optimistic about a @JoeBiden presidency:
The last two Democratic presidents with comparable experience relevant to the presidency (e.g., senior positions in US congress or executive branch, or large state governor):
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Lyndon B. Johnson
In Japan they're doing contact tracing and contacts are told that nobody in their *household* is allowed to leave the house (at all) for two weeks. I presume this means that they have a support system sufficient to provide food and necessities for those households. Does the US?
Even Castro Street in Mountain View is borderline unpleasant. And that's with traffic calming *and* a lot of plants. I'd say European cities are better models...
Presumably any parcel has some probability of being redeveloped in a time period given a current use, current zoning, and current market... and I think that probability is generally relatively low for any given RHNA cycle...
Based on railjournal.com/passenger/hi… I thought it was only a restriction on routes where rail took 2.5 hours or less. So presumably they'd still be able to fly Paris-Nice, Paris-Toulouse, etc., as they have been.
We also need to use the tests effectively, i.e., contact tracing and some amount of centralized quarantine. (At minimum, voluntary centralized quarantine in hotels for anyone who wants it.)
We don't need a large change; we're pretty close to R=1.0.