Engineer on @googlechrome. Involved in CSS and W3C standards. Previously @mozilla, @w3ctag. Mastodon: @dbaron@w3c.social
Rockville, Maryland, USA
Joined March 2008
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This way of thinking helps explain some people's confusion in 2018 when, in a Democratic year, the Senate shifted a few seats towards the Republicans.
2018 was a huge Democratic win in the senate (23D/10R), but it was replacing the 2012 class which was 25D/8R.
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This isn't unusual for Senate classes in recent years; see the maps I made at dbaron.org/senate-classes/ .
(These are what I look at when I want to think about Senate elections.)
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This year's US Senate elections are for Class II (other than the special elections in Arizona and Georgia). This class was last elected in 2014 (electing 22 Republicans and 11 Democrats), and before that in 2008 (20D, 13R) and 2002 (21R, 12D). Those are pretty big swings.
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A thread on how I think about US Senate elections, since I think it's useful. Many people tend to focus on the Senate as a whole and how it shifts in a given election. However, I think the results are much more understandable when looking at the three Senate classes separately.
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It seems like the most likely electoral college tie scenario, given that I've seen it twice in the past few days in the 100-dots graph on @FiveThirtyEight is this map (created with @270toWin) 270towin.com/maps/d7ZeX #2020election
L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
If the recently seated Justice Barrett sides with the Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Thomas Quartet, America could be in for a battle that makes Bush v. Gore look tame. I’ve joined with @stevenmazie of @TheEconomist in @GlobeOpinion to sound the alarm🚨 bostonglobe.com/2020/11/01/o…
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The ETAs for Tropical Storm Eta.
Tropical Storm #Eta is now forecast to become a strong category two hurricane near landfall along the coast of Nicaragua. Tropical Storm conditions are forecast to arrive around 2pm EST tomorrow and storm preparations should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
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L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
Super Typhoon #Goni is now making landfall on is the island of Catanduanes Island with a pressure of 884mb and wind speeds of 195mph. This would be the strongest landfalling storm of all time in the Northern Hemisphere and tied for the entire globe with Winston (2016).
#RollyPh
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Update: Map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (10,183,598) in California.
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L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
This may not matter directly for Tuesday's elections, but if every blue state does everything they can to boost turnout, it may indirectly aid democracy by undermining the Electoral College if it causes Dem popular vote wins & makes it easier to pressure red states to follow suit
Hawaii has long been among the worst states for voter turnout in part because the competitive races happen almost all in Dem primaries, but this is the first year they mailed everyone a ballot, & turnout may explode to a record high after already shattering records in the primary
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Update: Map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (9,158,997) in California.
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Update: Map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (8,566,756) in California.
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Yes, this target is wrong; it should really be somewhere around double this number.
And I've said so to City Council (e.g., in cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/f… , page 75).
Quick! We all need to stop Palo Alto from being required to add 10,058 homes (houses or apartments) over the 8 year period of 2023-2031.
How can a city that residents describe as being nearly as dense as Hong Kong add 1260 homes per year? This is craziness!
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Today's update: Map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (7,912,871) in California.
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Today's update: Map of US states whose TOTAL POPULATION is larger than the number of mail-in ballots ALREADY RETURNED (7,402,302) in California.
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L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
Today, Seamless Bay Area is unveiling a map of our Integrated Transit Fare Vision — a fully unified system of transit fares that would enable riders to travel seamlessly across the nine-county Bay Area with a single transit fare and free transfers 🗺️ seamlessbayarea.org/integrat…
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L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
Long before Justice Brett Kavanaugh considered "late arriving" votes "illegitimate," lawyer Brett Kavanaugh labored for their inclusion.
If not for the votes Kavanaugh helped add to the totals in Florida on THANKSIVING weekend, Bush might have lost n 2000.
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L. David Baron @dbaron@w3c.social retweeted
Take it from me: the only way to avoid Bush v Gore II is to win by enough votes that 2020 never gets to the Supreme Court. Don't let the Court have this power: all of us, at the ballot box, need to decide this election.
Holy shit—Brett Kavanaugh just endorsed Rehnquist's concurrence in Bush v. Gore, which was too extreme for Kennedy or O'Connor.
This is a red alert. I can't believe he put it in a footnote. This is terrifying. assets.documentcloud.org/doc…
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