This debt ceiling resolution barely cuts the deficit at all, something Dems really should be happy about in the end. And since we know the government will remain woefully short on tax receipts (and getting worse as recession starts to occur later this year), this means that Janet is going to start restocking the TGA even more aggressively now to make sure this isnt an election issue again for Dems. She wants the TGA to $600bn by end 3q but look for that to get upsized (borrow when you can, not when you want to). But what's different this time is that rates aren't zero anymore as the Fed has embarked on its tightening mission to stop inflation. So UST supply is going to accelerate in short order, larger than folks realize, and have to compete with lending to the Fed overnight/risk free at an RRP rate of 5.05 and likely rising to 5.3% and possibly on hold for at least a year (according to various Fed members and likely confirmed by the June DOT plot). After the initial risk on pop from volality fade since imminent default is off the table, expect the real fireworks to begin as the world wakes up to the reality of the world's largest economic actor borrowing massive amounts of money in coming months at 5%+ and crowding out anyone and everyone that needs access to cheap US$ @SamanthaLaDuc @42MacroAware @dampedspring @LukeGromen @LawrenceLepard @Convertbond @jam_croissant