Join the conference tomorrow. 4pm isprs2020-nice.com/index.php…
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Herd immunity(HI) a big ask but we can do it. Countries targeting HI as % of total population= Israel 66%, Singapore 75%, NZ 78%, China 70-80%. We should target minimum 67% total pop, preferably 80% (for Delta). HI includes 12-18years & should target 100% vaccination of 60+years.
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I think its a case of wont. It needs to be available by date rather than needing to follow morning presser reports. Full transparency minus personal identify data is sadly missing.
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Indeed. Data could be improved by simply date case number isolation eg 4Jul274NI (not in isolation) and mesh locator. Check out Po-Shen Loh’s app uses voluntary data entry by case then uses social network of case to inform users of degree of closeness to case.
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thanks I've been following this purple group since the beginning as its critical. I have your link and @Mike_Honey_ and will show this to the conference on how outbreak epi has advanced from 'line list' and 'spot maps' 😆
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Thanks @Mike_Honey_ and @dbRaevn you've visualised the outbreak nicely. Outbreak management looks now at critical issue of % cases not in isolation. Visualising this would be helpful as I'd like to show it at a data conference - giving all credit to both of you
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Exactly Bill. Transparency & apolitical decisions and communication are essential for trust & cooperation.
How Australia emerges into the world after population fully vaccinated will affect lives, health, wealth of every Australian, their families, businesses and futures. Setting of benchmarks and modalities can only be done after full consultation with entire Australian community,
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Gov plan must include rapid flexible response to COVID not 'live with it'. More detail required eg vaccination %. Need better transparency (modelling, remove 'cabinet in confidence'), apolitical communication, purpose-built quarantine, home quarantine protocol inc. home test kit.
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"Its not easy bein' Green...when I think it could be nicer bein' red or yellow or gold (standard)"...Kermit
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Comparison of current NSW Delta outbreak with 2 previous outbreaks (USA strain & Kappa/Delta). Delta has different pattern due to higher & quicker transmission.
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Po-Shen Loh: Mathematics, Math Olympiad, Combinatorics & Novel Contact Tracing... youtube.com/6z1JwZbX4dQ via @YouTube
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Thanks, you've done well given public data doesn't help those outside DoHs and its often easier to obtain from the media. Analysis of Ct levels would be interesting as Dates to Dx are short. Source for Birthday Party is S15 yet I had heard it was a male worker at Westfield.
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Nice work. notice short IP but wouldnt it be nice to Ct levels? Have you been able to get full breakdown of ages/age groups for all cases?
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Outbreak management should first and foremost be based on a duty of care to the community. Delta VOC, highly infectious with adverse effect on vaccine efficacy. Stay-at-home order is over due.
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Updated projections. Congratulations 153,338 injections today. June average about 125,000/day. Need to get up to 155,000/day for next 6 months. Huge logistical challenge - ADF could help rollout to everyone wanting vaccination especially when more Pfizer available.
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Congratulations Vic, 0 community cases today. Comparison of Vic outbreak (VOC Delta/VOI Kappa) to NSW Nth Beaches (USA strain) - similar time to peak but potential earlier 14day zeros. Early effective lockdown is painful but has limited extensive community spread.
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Great that vaccination rate is increasing. However we still need to reach 150,000 injections/day every day to vaccinate everyone by Dec 31. Pfizer now has FDA Emergency Use Authorization for 11-15 years. This group are vulnerable to variants but should be vaccinated after adults.
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