Graphs illustrating weekly tracking of Testing vs Pos results. Safety zone is when testing is high and positives low. Vic 😀, NSW improved 👌. QLD needs improving, SA 😟 ramp up testing. There's never a time to drop rate of testing, ever.
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Outbreak speed is fast going up: VIC June 13, 14-day average 5; 8 weeks later, average 467. Speed going down is slower: 11 weeks to get average back to 5. Don’t waste 11 weeks effort; wait for test results.
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Current 14-day case load is 5. Important not to rush decisions without results, tomorrow or Tuesday test results from contacts and their contacts will confirm whether cluster over 11 households has been contained. Vic you're so close to very safe level.
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Post lockdown strategy: increase testing combined with forward & back contact tracing and isolation of every contact (because 14%-20% cases are asymptomatic, every case is infectious from day-3 post-exposure & some wont test positive first time)
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Mary-Louise McLaws retweeted
Pilot testing was also an important part of this early phase, unique in validating a global #handhygiene improvement model. Read @WHO history who.int/infection-prevention… @allegranzib @julesstorr @JGonseth @hugo__sax @Hopitaux_unige @MarylouiseMcla1 others & @DidierPittet leadership
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Mary-Louise McLaws retweeted
"No one in the world should go to bed hungry. No one."
Today the @WFP were awarded the 2020 #NobelPeacePrize. Not long after the announcement was made we spoke to an excited and shocked David Beasley, the organisation's executive director.
#NobelPrize
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Choose countries for home quarantining based on similar epidemiology and leadership for rapid response to cluster outbreaks. Testing rates per million if low may hide hi risk to our community (e.g.UK). UK, EU now in savage 2nd wave; USA numbers continue skyward
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Vic average changes remains in the negative (ie good decline in numbers, left axis) but NSW is now back in positive (ie increase in numbers) similar to early July. Next week is critical in NSW to see if another surge is coming; wear 😷 & continue good public health practices
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Lockdowns are working. Mr Andrews please continue for another 11 days (then Vic will be in Green zone)
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This is my 14 day rolling average. NSW is in the Amber zone (60-99 cases over 14 days. Too high and took 30 days to get out of RED (100+). Now Amber but climbed again. Still concerning
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who.int/publications/i/item/… Transmission within children & staff is limited. Guideline for 12yrs+ made on dexterity & possible higher risk of COVID than 0-11yrs. Benefits must outweigh risks.
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During SARS review I wrote of the concept of warning levels in pandemics/epidemics similar to those used for typhoons/bushfires and so easily understood by everyone. Some details for COVID: theage.com.au/national/victo…
omny.fm/shows/mornings-with-…
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