Herd immunity(HI) a big ask but we can do it. Countries targeting HI as % of total population= Israel 66%, Singapore 75%, NZ 78%, China 70-80%. We should target minimum 67% total pop, preferably 80% (for Delta). HI includes 12-18years & should target 100% vaccination of 60+years.

Jul 4, 2021 Β· 12:04 PM UTC

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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1 @billbowtell
How can we talk about herd β€œimmunity”. No such thing is possible with the vaccines available. Vaxed ppl can still catch Covid, just not with as severe consequences. Do vaxed ppl get long Covid? If so it is going to be the health scourge of the future.
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
Why does this exclude <12yos?
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1 @billbowtell
Israel ⬆️ restrictions mRNA UK is PURPOSELY infecting it’s population targeting children thru schools! US also for FREEDOM? Taiwan IS returning/maintaining Zero Covid & New Zealand looks on VERY calmly. Kids MUST be vaccinated Novavax looks great VOC’S kids Vax ALONE is a FAIL!
Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
To achieve close to 100% vax of over 60s, govt need to offer them Pfizer as an option. Many with complex medical histories rightly or wrongly are fearful of AZ We should be protecting our most vulnerable! First in line!
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1 @billbowtell
All for going for HI but what is the assumed R0 in the slide? Because 80% of 12+ with a vax 90% "eff vs trans" drops R0 by a factor of 2.7 Which gets us to HI vs original, but not against Delta (assuming delta R0 = 5) - and AZ is unlikely to be 90% "eff vs trans" for Delta.
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
Thank you Mary Louise. Your work is invaluable. I hope that the government plans include HI and that they are based on your advice.
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
What about those under 12?
Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
Oh, if only we can do it ML! If only we had a fed gov't which had the will, competence to do this. Thank you!
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
So we are happy to do a pop health experiment on kids? Let’s aim for 6m+ to be included when approved. We will need to with the anti-vax nutters poisoning minds.
Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
And what about natural immunity. The virus doesn't effect the under 18's hardly at all, their natural immunity appears stronger than vaccine boosted immunity.
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