I calculated, graphed, if vaccines can produce herd immunity (HI) & Pfizer needs 75% population coverage (85% for UK variant) AZ needs 100%. Pfizer+AZ planned combination needs 90% coverage. Get vaccinated please. But how do we protect if we don't get 90% coverage?

Feb 3, 2021 · 11:23 PM UTC

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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
Great interview on 3RRR this morning, thanks for your good work. Could you please explain what q (blue line) and qc (grey, yellow, orange lines) and Ro represent on your graph? Thank-you
Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
How does the US get to 90% in less than 18 months 🥴 I think about this daily
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
Is this based on the transmissibility data or the disease efficacy data? Is Pfizer transmissibility data out?
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
By realising if vaccines stop hospitalisations and deaths then you have no problem.
Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
I'm clearly misreading what the graph means because I'm rather confused as to why R0 go to 1 and not to 0. Should I be reading this as the % of population needed to be vaccinated to reduce R0 to 1 given the vaccine efficacy (qc?) across the range of virus (unvaccinated) R0s?
Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
Hi Mary, My question is about ‘vaccine passports’ and whether you believe that countries that aren’t using AZ (eg Japan) might give preference to those who are vaccinated with Pfizer or otherwise?
Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
Thankyou for all that you do for us.
Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
Where is natural infections and pre existing immunity accounted for?
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
And what happens when borders open and your have virus coming in regularly?
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Replying to @MarylouiseMcla1
How did you do this calculation? I would love to reproduce it and play with the scenarios and the efficacies :)