Breaking news, Australia secured additional 10 million of doses of Pfizer, that changes the calculation a lot-in a positive way!👍

This appears to assume that the effect in Symptomatic Infection is also the same as the effect on Transmission? Am I reading that correctly? If so, is this a 'simplifying assumption' used till we have better data - or do we already have data that supports their equivalence?

Did you check with Craig Kelly first? Oh, and do you need any furniture while you're at it?

Did the analysis consider the effectiveness for different population groups ? Eg elderly, immune-suppressed ?

One other question - the vaccines are intended to mitigate the severity of the disease not to prevent infection (any impact unknown at this time). So by herd immunity do you mean resistance to severe symptoms of disease ?

@MarylouiseMcla1 is there a way of looking at this data for disease severity and hospitalization projections as I understand the AZ vaccine still has some benefit in this area?

It looks like you're using the HIT=R0/(R0-1) equation. It's wildly inaccurate for actual human populations, where inter-personal contact frequency is highly heterogenous.

We wear it. The few people who get seriously ill or die will be mostly self selecting by refusing the vaccine. It'll be much more like seasonal flu once most of us are vaccinated.

@drvyom thoughts & views?

What about those with immunity via infection, where do they feature in your calculation?