Professor of Epidemiology @UNSW with an eye on infection at all times. Advisor to @WHO Health Emergencies IPC Preparedness, Readiness and Response to COVID-19

Sydney, New South Wales
Joined December 2015
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Replying to @roseacea
"recommended interval for the 3rd dose is 2 to 6 months after the 2nd dose of vaccine. o A minimum interval of 4 weeks may be considered in exceptional circumstances...." ATAGI Vers 1.0. 7 Oct. Inline with Israeli evidence.
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Kid vaccines prevent illness, spread & prevents rare complications - brain inflammation due to mumps 1 in 200 & 1 in 1000 due to measles; 1 death/year from rotavirus. Approx 20,000 kids 0-9 & 22,000 10-19yr had Delta in Vic & NSW. That's enough reason to COVID vacc 5-11 yr.
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Replying to @pazzazaz
Like Israel (in 60s% coverage), SG opened up too soon (in 70s%).
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First indicator of Vic peaking came yesterday. Same trend today & death rate lower than NSW. Well done Vic. Keep safe, stick to the rules & get vaccinated. Getting vaccinated lowers circulating virus which lowers cases and lowers death rates.
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Congratulations, this is a safe way to open up. Rapid antigen tests (RATs) have been available to us for months. Should be used to screen & safeguard our boundaries/borders, venues, schools & institutions. Best RATs match PCR, take 10-15mins & cheaper. abc.net.au/news/2021-09-03/w…
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Replying to @gumnut49
The maths will show as total numbers increases in unvaccinated young so will the number hospitalised. If the young remain highest group unvaccinated then hospitalisation will mostly be young. In UK 5-24yo are highest Delta numbers & Delta increases hospitalisation by two fold.
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"Can't live in lockdown forever" BUT DON'T SACRIFICE OUR YOUNG. Restrictions mustn't lift until young have vaccine access equity; they carry highest caseload yet lowest vaccination. Without vaccination, young will have highest caseload & therefore highest numbers in hospital.
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Great to see more Pfizer. Great to see 20-39 yo targeted. Great to see some action on rapid antigen testing. Hopefully better late than never. Evaluating obvious epidemiological patterns for obvious rapid outbreak management does not require waiting for theoretical modelling.
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3/3 NZ is targeting 78% of total population and Singapore is targeting 75% of total population. National Cabinet modelling must to be published for public review & for Australians to understand why Government targets are so low compared to estimated local and overseas targets.
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2/3 I calculated we need 68%min & preferably 80% of total pop to be vaccinated. Grattan Institute recommends "fully vaccinating 80% of all Australians, & 95% of the over-70s", to "give us the best chance of gradually returning to normal life – with open borders & no lockdowns".
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1/3 National Cabinet targets of 70% & 80% (16 years +) vaccination thresholds equate to 56% and 64% of total population vaccinated. Australia must do better than these vaccination rates because.....
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RATs (rapid antigen tests) performed daily identifies someone infected early before they show symptoms. Early detection means they are isolated faster and their memory is fresh when questioned during contact tracing. Faster testing means faster isolation from work mates & public.
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Replying to @mercyrx3
Agree. UK has given out these test for twice weekly home testing and picked up 120,000 cases this way. It also reduced burden of memory for contact tracing questions if tested regularly.
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Employers should be daily screening their asymptomatic essential service staff (eg delivery drivers, grocery store workers) who work together & with the public. Repeat daily tests is superior accuracy compared with no PCR or infrequent PCR testing.
Replying to @WHO
Learn how to safely perform SARS-CoV-2 Antigen RDT testing, ensure quality testing and interpret #COVID19 results in this free 🆕 online course on #OpenWHO 👉 bit.ly/3yNldC0
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Replying to @sdunbabin
Suggest you have it handy in ready in case you need a coffee. Also keep handy for pack-gatherings and keep doggie away from cats (infected cats may spread COVID! 🤣).
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Masks are part of prevention. Dan Deere (water research) & I had fun “A mask.Don’t leave home without it” “If it’s-not-on-outside it’s-not-on” “If it’s-not-on-shopping it’s-not-on“ “If it’s-not-on don’t get on” “No sign-in no dine-in” “Scan the QR so we know where you R”
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Replying to @dbRaevn
Join the conference tomorrow. 4pm isprs2020-nice.com/index.php…
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Herd immunity(HI) a big ask but we can do it. Countries targeting HI as % of total population= Israel 66%, Singapore 75%, NZ 78%, China 70-80%. We should target minimum 67% total pop, preferably 80% (for Delta). HI includes 12-18years & should target 100% vaccination of 60+years.
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