Don’t panic; globally, Covid19 cases will get worse before they get better. Leadership the key.
LISTEN: The head of the WHO says of #Covid19 things will get 'worse and worse and worse'. NewsRadio spoke with WHO Health Emergencies Program Experts Advisory Panel member, @MarylouiseMcla1 about Dr Tedros' prognosis. abc.net.au/radio/newsradio/w…
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Concurrent ring fencing, lock-down, testing with isolation, children staying at home from school, and mask use (I'd like to see mandatory public mask use for 14 days) are all good containment strategies. Don't condemn them yet 🤞
It’s not too late for Australia to change course and aim for coronavirus elimination - The New Daily thenewdaily.com.au/news/coro…
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Growth in total cases # in last 12 day high not as high as 5 fold increase between first 2 weeks June & last 2 weeks June. Sneak peek at total cases over last 7 days - hopeful sign of peaking🤞Hope you get to "near-eradication" makes next time easier to contain.
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3 concurrent scenarios: 1. Allowed travel to agreed germ bubble, no quarantine, but notification of symptoms. 2. Allowed travel & may require quarantine if destination case # increases. 3. Advised not to travel & mandatory quarantine on return.
Expelled particles have range of sizes. Our PhD student in '13 proved flu expelled droplet & aerosol sizes (until then flu assigned as only aerosol). WHO agrees aerosol possible but uncommon clinicians use respirators for procedures; public in less danger so med/cloth mask.
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When making a cloth mask WHO recommends outer layer water resist (but dont use a layer that is not breathable). Med masks are also hot increases steamy feeling. WHO is examining the safety of face shields alone for public who cant tolerate masks.
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I could have broken down to single transmission mode. Currently both graphs have return travellers and local transmission (% travellers similar for all Aust, in Vict & NSW), dates for two curves differ betw Aust & Vict but this was an exercise in visualising the speed
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Well, if you look closer - blue is all Australia since March 14; red is just Victoria since June 25.
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We are aware of this. WHO clearly states pregnant women no mask, children no mask. Respirators can reduce oxy levels and these are recommended for short periods during dangerous medical interventions.
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Horizontal axis shows 32 look-backs of cases in previous 14days (twice incub period). blue Aust red Vic. This simple look-back shows speed of outbreak & explains why best to act early to slow outbreak. Vic peak wont happen immediately. Thank you Melb ❤️ & everyone tested❤️
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