Professor of Epidemiology @UNSW with an eye on infection at all times. Advisor to @WHO Health Emergencies IPC Preparedness, Readiness and Response to COVID-19

Sydney, New South Wales
Joined December 2015
Comparison of current NSW Delta outbreak with 2 previous outbreaks (USA strain & Kappa/Delta). Delta has different pattern due to higher & quicker transmission.
29
166
15
393
Updated projections. Congratulations 153,338 injections today. June average about 125,000/day. Need to get up to 155,000/day for next 6 months. Huge logistical challenge - ADF could help rollout to everyone wanting vaccination especially when more Pfizer available.
23
69
5
254
Congratulations Vic, 0 community cases today. Comparison of Vic outbreak (VOC Delta/VOI Kappa) to NSW Nth Beaches (USA strain) - similar time to peak but potential earlier 14day zeros. Early effective lockdown is painful but has limited extensive community spread.
68
255
32
1,101
Great that vaccination rate is increasing. However we still need to reach 150,000 injections/day every day to vaccinate everyone by Dec 31. Pfizer now has FDA Emergency Use Authorization for 11-15 years. This group are vulnerable to variants but should be vaccinated after adults.
16
72
1
239
Just for interest to finish by Dec '21 would require reaching min 150K injections/day for at least 6 months. Great to see hubs being utilised and more being planned.
13
51
2
134
Fantastic - more than 90K vaccine injections/day over last 2 days. However, May average still 60K/day. We need at least 100K/day for minimum 6 months to vaccinate enough adults by June '22. The high injections/day is to allow for the overseas pattern of slow-down in last months.
2
21
1
68
After 17 days Aust total is 106K injections. After 17 days UK had 830K, Israel 1.4mill, USA 2.8mill. Our current daily av. about 8K per day. We need between 160K-190K per day every day for 240 days to reach potential herd immunity. We need both public & private mass vaccination.
126
821
85
2,056
Vaccine rollout is best in absence of COVID (reduces mutations & vaccine derailment). Below is our 2nd letter urging quarantine program augmentation with daily (or every 2nd day) rapid antigen tests in staff & travellers for earliest identification & to eliminate virus escaping.
26
187
19
543