Professor of Epidemiology @UNSW with an eye on infection at all times. Advisor to @WHO Health Emergencies IPC Preparedness, Readiness and Response to COVID-19

Sydney, New South Wales
Joined December 2015
Replying to @keith__farmer
May Gibbs c. 1918/19 Australia; Flu Pandemic :)
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Vic (red) congratulations. Melbournians keep 😷 Health workers (your case # creeping up) wear 😷 or face shield in all clinical settings next 14 days ❤️ NSW (blue) rolling 14-day case # accelerating, not at alert level yet🤞no partying please
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Today's look-back for previous 14 days and last 7 days. Sorry Melbourne not peaking yet. Thank you for the lock-down, its hard we are thinking of you ❤️ please wear a mask in public. stay safe.
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Growth in total cases # in last 12 day high not as high as 5 fold increase between first 2 weeks June & last 2 weeks June. Sneak peek at total cases over last 7 days - hopeful sign of peaking🤞Hope you get to "near-eradication" makes next time easier to contain.
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You can make your own Face Mask. See pages 7-12 for recent @WHO info on masks for the General Public. tinyurl.com/y8llm7e3 Keep mouth closed when worn. Replace when wet (wet cotton negates benefits). #COVID19Aus
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Horizontal axis shows 32 look-backs of cases in previous 14days (twice incub period). blue Aust red Vic. This simple look-back shows speed of outbreak & explains why best to act early to slow outbreak. Vic peak wont happen immediately. Thank you Melb ❤️ & everyone tested❤️
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Reactive vs Proactive: Don't wait for R>1 as alert to act will be too late. Using regional small but increasing daily case numbers alert to act easy to miss. Watching 2*incub periods easier to see when to be proactive.
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Melbournians please wear a mask on public transport. Melbournians in hotspots please wear a mask. We ❤️you and new cloth masks can provide up to 70% protection. Outbreak management using Ring Fencing of hotspots works - use it, please.
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Why test widely for Covid-19 in “hotspots”? Because symptomless carriers can be as high as 18%. When you add these to the pre-symptomatic cases ... you've got at least 40 per cent of cases not presenting with a symptom.
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