I calculated, graphed, if vaccines can produce herd immunity (HI) & Pfizer needs 75% population coverage (85% for UK variant) AZ needs 100%. Pfizer+AZ planned combination needs 90% coverage. Get vaccinated please. But how do we protect if we don't get 90% coverage?
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We wrote this on December 7 before this outbreak - still not response. Outbreak management is building up rings of defence with strategies that are never perfect hence the multiple rings. Add rapid testing at airport to close a hole in our defence.
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We wrote on 7 December, before this outbreak, to State and Federal ministry about holes in the handling of international travellers and glight crew & how to ameliorate them. It is not the community’s fault.
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Graphs illustrating weekly tracking of Testing vs Pos results. Safety zone is when testing is high and positives low. Vic 😀, NSW improved 👌. QLD needs improving, SA 😟 ramp up testing. There's never a time to drop rate of testing, ever.
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Post lockdown strategy: increase testing combined with forward & back contact tracing and isolation of every contact (because 14%-20% cases are asymptomatic, every case is infectious from day-3 post-exposure & some wont test positive first time)
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Choose countries for home quarantining based on similar epidemiology and leadership for rapid response to cluster outbreaks. Testing rates per million if low may hide hi risk to our community (e.g.UK). UK, EU now in savage 2nd wave; USA numbers continue skyward
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Vic average changes remains in the negative (ie good decline in numbers, left axis) but NSW is now back in positive (ie increase in numbers) similar to early July. Next week is critical in NSW to see if another surge is coming; wear 😷 & continue good public health practices
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