Quarantine is not 99.9% effective. 21,000 cases (70% of total cases) since border closure on 20 March '20 are directly & indirectly due to quarantine breaches & exemptions. Purpose-built quarantine facilities with rapid antigen testing on arrival & day-14 are required.
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Increases in variants of concern & resurgence in case numbers in countries that previously controlled their pandemics are a warning. We must not open our borders until majority, especially our 20-39 year olds (majority of cases & transmitters) are vaccinated.
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Just for interest to finish by Dec '21 would require reaching min 150K injections/day for at least 6 months. Great to see hubs being utilised and more being planned.
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Fantastic - more than 90K vaccine injections/day over last 2 days. However, May average still 60K/day. We need at least 100K/day for minimum 6 months to vaccinate enough adults by June '22. The high injections/day is to allow for the overseas pattern of slow-down in last months.
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Mass vaccination sites are urgently needed. Current av. rate after last 6 weeks is just 22,000 doses/day. I calculate to have 85% population vaccinated by end of year we need 133,000/day every day from tomorrow to Dec 31 plus 70,000/day every day from Jan 1-Mar 31 2022.
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After 17 days Aust total is 106K injections. After 17 days UK had 830K, Israel 1.4mill, USA 2.8mill. Our current daily av. about 8K per day. We need between 160K-190K per day every day for 240 days to reach potential herd immunity. We need both public & private mass vaccination.
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Vaccine rollout is best in absence of COVID (reduces mutations & vaccine derailment). Below is our 2nd letter urging quarantine program augmentation with daily (or every 2nd day) rapid antigen tests in staff & travellers for earliest identification & to eliminate virus escaping.
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Further to previous graph - important to note with escape of UK variant giving just Pfizer to 90% population coverage could provide HI. Proposed Pfizer+AZ combo may not ever provide HI. This is why it is so important to prevent escape of UK variant from quarantine hotels.
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I calculated, graphed, if vaccines can produce herd immunity (HI) & Pfizer needs 75% population coverage (85% for UK variant) AZ needs 100%. Pfizer+AZ planned combination needs 90% coverage. Get vaccinated please. But how do we protect if we don't get 90% coverage?
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Please join me to watch Jean Paul and our first nation ceremony and discussion. We need to find a day to bring all Australians together to celebrate our great country sbs.com.au/nitv/video/113940…
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Herd immunity is not the goal of current vaccines because 1) all levels infections not preventable 2) would need high efficacy for all level of infection & high pop coverage. Please get any vaccine to give better chance of protection from symptoms, possibly severe COVID & death.
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Great news frontline staff will now be tested daily. Now we need to reduce risk of incoming COVID19 & variants with testing international travellers & crew before they board & immediately on arrival.
My colleagues and I wrote 7 Dec an open letter to State/Fed asking for rapid antigen testing of every incoming travellers without exception. Better late than never.
Qantas crew member tests Covid-positive theguardian.com/australia-ne…
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Vaccine rollout requires precision planning and 1000s of staff. To keep this important program on track multiple protection barriers for quarantine and travellers must be in place and foolproof.
theconversation.com/australi…
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Mandatory masks will help to prevent the spread of COVID 👌. Government, shopping malls and venues should hand out free masks to augment the current physical distancing and hand hygiene stations. Assisting everyone's cooperation is more effective than fines.
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Mandatory mask use protects everyone & is essential during outbreaks. Why can't we "safely speed" on roads? If we get it wrong we kill ourselves as well as others. Why can't we 'decide' when we wear a mask ? Because if we get it wrong we infect ourselves but also others.
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Vaccinating 80% of Australia in 8 months means 170,000 injections per day every day; 4 times the average daily number Covid tests (Apr-Dec). Our health system will struggle to vaccinate while fighting outbreaks unless quarantine flaws are strengthened before March.
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My colleagues and I wrote 7 Dec an open letter to State/Fed asking for rapid antigen testing of every incoming travellers without exception. Better late than never.
Qantas crew member tests Covid-positive theguardian.com/australia-ne…
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My colleagues & I wrote an open letter last week calling for rapid testing. The virus doesn’t understand exemption rules. Everyone without exception must have a rapid antigen test for covid on arrival - everyone, no exemptions. thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020…
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